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Rclone last copy log
Rclone last copy log












  • Com­mer­cial fore­cast prod­ucts are often deter­min­is­tic (one sin­gle future sce­nario) as opposed to prob­a­bilis­tic (mul­ti­ple future sce­nar­ios).
  • Either way, buy­ers are expect­ed to sim­ply take them at their word that their algo­rithms are tru­ly state-of-the-art.
  • The algo­rithms under­ly­ing com­mer­cial prod­ucts are always kept secret, per­haps because the algo­rithms lack sophis­ti­ca­tion or because the com­pa­nies fear los­ing their edge.
  • Oiko­Lab, for exam­ple, com­bines ERA5 his­tor­i­cal data with GFS fore­casts, despite the sub­stan­tial sys­tem­at­ic dif­fer­ences between these two products.
  • Com­mer­cial prod­ucts often com­bine dif­fer­ent incon­sis­tent data sources with­out per­form­ing any sta­tis­ti­cal har­mo­niza­tion, result­ing in spu­ri­ous jumps in the time series.
  • Com­mer­cial prod­ucts are often adver­tised as “high res­o­lu­tion” but in real­i­ty have a coarse spa­tial res­o­lu­tion (≥0.25°) and are, there­fore, unable to rep­re­sent moun­tain­ous regions.
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    While these com­mer­cial prod­ucts may be more read­i­ly acces­si­ble, they have the exact same char­ac­ter­is­tics as their free counterparts.

  • Many com­mer­cial prod­ucts rep­re­sent noth­ing more than repack­aged ver­sions of freely avail­able datasets (pri­mar­i­ly from NOAA, NASA, and ECMWF).
  • Mate­r­i­al prod­uct details (e.g., spa­tio-tem­po­ral res­o­lu­tion, tem­po­ral span, and data sources) are usu­al­ly not dis­closed, mak­ing it dif­fi­cult to find out what you’re real­ly getting.
  • In real­i­ty, how­ev­er, their prod­ucts suf­fer from a num­ber of seri­ous issues:

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    Their web­sites and brochures are gen­er­al­ly filled with fan­cy buzz­words (e.g., “hyper-local”), astro­nom­i­cal num­bers (e.g., “2 mil­lion grid points”), and con­fus­ing ter­mi­nol­o­gy (e.g., “vir­tu­al weath­er sta­tion”) intend­ed to per­suade you to buy their prod­ucts. There are sev­er­al com­mer­cial mete­o­ro­log­i­cal data prod­ucts on the mar­ket from com­pa­nies like Cus­tomWeath­er, Oiko­Lab, Spire, Storm Glass, Vaisala, the Weath­er Com­pa­ny, and Weath­er Source. Admit­ted­ly, nei­ther does MSWX, but MSWX is com­pat­i­ble with GloH2O’s Mul­ti-Source Weight­ed-Ensem­ble Pre­cip­i­ta­tion ( MSWEP), which merges gauge, satel­lite, and reanaly­sis data to pro­vide the high­est qual­i­ty pre­cip­i­ta­tion estimates.

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  • None of the oth­er prod­ucts incor­po­rate satel­lite-based pre­cip­i­ta­tion retrievals to enhance the per­for­mance in con­vec­tion-dom­i­nat­ed regions and peri­ods.
  • This is con­cern­ing as moun­tain­ous regions con­tribute a large share of the world’s pop­u­la­tion with freshwater.
  • The oth­er prod­ucts have coarse spa­tial res­o­lu­tions (≥0.25°) and thus are unable to rep­re­sent moun­tain­ous regions.
  • Although ECMWF fore­casts are, to a cer­tain degree, con­sis­tent with ERA5, they are only avail­able commercially. As a workaround, sev­er­al oper­a­tional flood fore­cast­ing sys­tems com­bine his­tor­i­cal, near real-time, and fore­cast data from dif­fer­ent incon­sis­tent sources, which affects the reli­a­bil­i­ty of the warn­ings issued by these sys­tems.

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    None of the oth­er prod­ucts pro­vide con­sis­tent and freely avail­able fore­casts and, there­fore, they can­not by them­selves be used to pro­vide advance warn­ing of impend­ing weath­er.In addi­tion, the HydroGFD updates are only avail­able commercially. Although ERA5 and HydroGFD are updat­ed to 5 days from real-time, this is insuf­fi­cient­ly time­ly for most oper­a­tional appli­ca­tions. They are not avail­able in near real-time and, there­fore, they can­not be used to oper­a­tional­ly mon­i­tor weath­er as it occurs.How­ev­er, these prod­ucts suf­fer from four main draw­backs com­pared to MSWX: ERA5, HydroGFD, PGF, and WFDE5 are exam­ples of oth­er glob­al mete­o­ro­log­i­cal data prod­ucts.












    Rclone last copy log